Founders' Porch goes scholarly...
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| An American "Hyper-power" resists decline at the Olympic Qualifier in Antigua, Guatemala in May 2012. |
Over a decade ago Kenneth
Waltz noted that “American leaders seem to believe that America’s pre-eminent position
will last indefinitely.” President Barack Obama has proved no exception: in his
2012 State of the Union address he argued, “Anyone who tells you that America
is in decline or that our influence has waned, doesn’t know what they’re
talking about.” Robert Kagan concurs, noting that “great powers rarely decline
suddenly,” that the recent economic meltdown is but a cyclical bust, that the
US military “would defeat any competitor in a head-to-head battle,” and that
competitors like China have far to go to match American military, economic, and
cultural power. In fact, argues Tufts China expert Michael Beckley, far from
decline, American power relative to China is even greater than it was at the
beginning of the auspicious post-Cold War era.
Yet despite their rightful
aversion to American decline, all three overlook an ominous reality upon which most
international relations scholars and economists – from American primacy
sympathizer Richard Haas to realist Richard Betts to globalist Joseph Stiglitz–
find agreement: an America $16 trillion in debt, staggering back from costly
“head-to-head battles” in the Middle East and Afghanistan, and bracing itself
for the rise of nonpolar threats of a globalized world and the IMF-predicted
2016 Chinese economic eclipse, is surely in decline.
